Where clean‑energy rollbacks hit the hardest — how policy shifts could strain household budgets in Republican‑leaning states.
The Inflation Reduction Act kicked off a boom in cheap wind, solar and battery projects, making renewables the fastest and least‑expensive way to build new power plants. But President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” signed on July 4 2025, guts many of those incentives. Policy experts at the non‑partisan think‑tank Energy Innovation warn that by scrapping long‑term tax credits, utilities will lean harder on gas and coal plants.
That shift could push power prices up by as much as 18 percent by 2035, and average households are expected to pay around $170 more each year. Those averages mask big differences, though: states that were about to ride a wave of renewable investment stand to lose the most. The pain will not be felt evenly: Republican‑leaning states that currently enjoy low‑cost renewable power stand to lose the most.
Here’s a closer look at 11 states projected to get hit hardest when the clean‑energy supports are rolled back. The figures below represent how much more, on average, residents could end up paying each year for energy by 2035 compared to a future where the original tax credits stayed in place.
1. Missouri – the steepest spike as renewables vanish
Missourians could see the biggest jump in the country, with annual energy bills climbing roughly $640 by 2035, and even about $130 more by the start of the next decade. The state was counting on a rush of wind and solar projects to replace aging coal plants, but those plans are now on the chopping block.
Without the IRA credits, wholesale power prices are projected to jump wildly — from roughly 31 percent higher in 2030 to several times higher by the mid‑2030s — and utility companies will pass those costs on. For residents already sweating through hot Midwestern summers, that means a huge hit to household budgets.
2. Kentucky – coal country facing runaway costs
Kentucky still leans heavily on coal, so the state stood to benefit from a wave of renewable energy projects. Without the tax credits, those projects dry up. Analysts say households could pay about $630 more each year by 2035 and roughly $200 more by 2030.
Wholesale power prices are projected to surge — 24 percent by 2030 and, astonishingly, several times higher by 2035 — because utilities will have to stick with expensive gas and coal plants. That cost burden, along with lost investment and jobs, turns Kentucky’s “cheap power” reputation on its head.
3. South Carolina – a growing solar state hit hard
In sunny South Carolina, the story is much the same. A state that has leaned into utility‑scale solar suddenly loses its footing. Analysts warn that by 2035 households could shell out roughly $630 more each year — with about $240 of that increase coming by 2030.
The repeal would cut around 10 gigawatts of planned clean‑energy capacity, forcing utilities to turn back to gas just as natural gas prices are expected to rise. Wholesale electricity costs could nearly double by 2035, and those higher costs will land directly on customers’ bills.
4. Oklahoma – wind powerhouse facing headwinds
Oklahoma is one of America’s leading wind states, so its vulnerability might come as a surprise. But under the OBBB, more than 14 gigawatts of new wind and solar capacity would be scrapped. Power prices could leap 55 percent by 2030 and climb even higher by 2035, translating into an extra $540 each year on the average household bill.
Rates might rise by as much as three‑and‑a‑half times what they would have been. Losing that planned clean power not only raises bills; it also threatens a thriving renewable industry that had promised jobs and investment.
5. North Carolina – clean‑energy leader on the line
North Carolina turned itself into a solar powerhouse over the past decade, but the OBBB would yank away the policy support behind that success. Nearly 26 gigawatts of planned clean‑energy capacity vanish from projections, and wholesale prices are expected to jump 49 percent by 2030 before more than doubling by the middle of the next decade.
That adds up to about $490 extra each year on the typical household bill, with around $220 of the increase arriving sooner. Beyond higher bills, the state stands to lose billions in economic activity and tens of thousands of jobs if its renewable build‑out stalls.
6. Texas – the energy hub facing higher costs
Texas leads the nation in wind and solar, and was planning to build another 77 gigawatts of clean power. That pipeline evaporates under the OBBB. Wholesale prices could rise 19 percent by 2030 and 150 percent by 2035, and residential rates might climb by roughly a quarter to a half.
For families, that means paying around $480 more each year by 2035 — with about $220 more showing up as early as 2030. The shift back to gas plants coincides with intensifying heat waves and grid stress, raising the stakes for Texans trying to keep cool.
7. Iowa – heartland winds up paying more
Iowa’s wind farms have kept power cheap, but the repeal threatens to blunt that advantage. Plans for more than 7 gigawatts of new wind and solar disappear, and wholesale prices are expected to rise moderately by 2030 before climbing nearly 50 percent by 2035. That leaves households paying about $350 more a year by mid‑decade, with smaller increases appearing sooner.
For a farm‑heavy state where margins are tight and weather is increasingly erratic, an extra hundred dollars here and there can hit both households and businesses.
8. Nevada – solar superstar losing its edge
Nevada’s reputation as a solar leader comes from abundant sunshine and a wave of planned projects. Without the tax credits, about 4.2 gigawatts of new capacity vanish. Wholesale prices are expected to tick up 11 percent by 2030 and about 43 percent by 2035.
Utilities will likely raise rates by roughly a fifth to a third, adding up to around $320 more on the typical household’s annual bill by mid‑decade. In a desert state where air‑conditioning is a necessity, losing low‑cost solar means families pay more just to stay cool.
9. Colorado – mountain state feeling the pinch
Colorado’s mix of wind, solar and emerging battery projects has kept electricity costs in check. But the repeal would nix roughly 3.9 gigawatts of new capacity. Wholesale prices could jump 45 percent by 2030 before the pace of increases slows, leaving households with about $310 extra tacked onto their annual bills by 2035 and roughly $170 more by 2030.
The policy reversal would slow the state’s clean‑energy momentum and threaten billions in planned investment.
10. Georgia – small increases with big consequences
Georgia’s solar boom has been a bright spot in the Southeast, but the OBBB could dim it. Analysts estimate that about 15 gigawatts of planned capacity would disappear, causing wholesale prices to rise roughly 14 percent by 2030 and 65 percent by 2035.
Those increases translate to about $270 more per household each year by the mid‑2030s and around $110 more within five years. The number may look modest compared with the Midwest, but Georgia has a high concentration of low‑income households already struggling with energy burdens, so even a smaller hike can sting.
11. Arizona – desert heat and higher bills
Arizona is booming, both in population and in planned solar farms. The OBBB would scuttle around 10 gigawatts of those projects. Wholesale prices are projected to rise 18 percent by 2030 and nearly 70 percent by 2035, while utilities could still increase rates by roughly 6–11 percent.
In practical terms, that leaves households paying about $220 more each year by the middle of the next decade and around $140 more by 2030. In a region where summer heat is unrelenting, losing cheap solar power means paying a premium just to keep the AC running.
What these changes mean
Rolling back clean‑energy incentives would undo years of progress on affordable power. The numbers above show that the hardest‑hit states are those that were on the cusp of building massive amounts of wind and solar: Missouri and Kentucky sit at the top with projected hikes over $630 a year, and states like South Carolina, Oklahoma, North Carolina and Texas aren’t far behind. Even where the increases look smaller on paper — as in Georgia or Arizona — they could still cause real hardship for low‑income families.
Energy policy may seem abstract, but for millions of Americans, the cost shows up directly on monthly utility bills. Keeping clean‑energy incentives in place isn’t just about climate goals; it’s about keeping the lights (and the air‑conditioning) on without breaking the bank.